On February 5, 2024 (based on Paris, France), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released its interim economic outlook for the global economy.
This report is published twice a year (May-June and November-December) and provides forecasts for the global economy, OECD member countries, and the major G20 nations. Additionally, in March and September, the OECD issues interim economic outlooks focusing on key countries. The G20 includes Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union (EU).
According to the OECD's analysis, the global economy showed a relatively resilient recovery in 2023, but growth momentum weakened towards the end of the year.
This trend is expected to continue into 2024, with global economic growth rate projected to slow slightly from 3.1% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2024, due to constraints on macroeconomic policies in major countries and structural issues in China's economy.
The U.S. economy is expected to maintain a moderate growth trajectory, supported by strong consumption, real wage increases, and the positive effects of interest rate cuts. The Eurozone is likely to see weaker growth in the first half of the year, delayed by a slow recovery in real income.
China's economy is expected to experience slower growth due to constraints on consumer sentiment, high debt levels, and weaknesses in the asset market.
Inflation rates are projected to gradually slow down despite supply chain issues, as demand is restrained by the impact of monetary tightening. Most emerging economies are expected to reach their inflation targets by the end of 2025.
For the Korean economy, growth is forecasted at 2.2% for 2024 and 2.1% for 2025, with inflation rates expected at 2.7% for 2024 and 2.0% for 2025. These projections are in line with the direction of our government's economic policies. (2024 South Korea Economic Growth Forecast: Government [2.2%], Bank of Korea [2.1%], IMF [2.3%], KDI [2.2%])
The OECD highlights key risks to the global economy, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the potential for rising inflation, and increased debt burdens due to high interest rates. It emphasizes the need for cautious monetary policy in light of inflationary pressures, fiscal soundness through tax and expenditure reforms, productivity improvements through education reforms, and structural efforts for sustainable growth through the restoration of global supply chains and free trade.